Eurovision 2024 Preview: The Party Isn’t Over

Lancing, 11th April 2024

It’s a month to go, so after a couple of weaker years, what’s in store for 2024?

Well, the craziness brought on by televote-only semis (grr) continues into this year, but overall I think this is a stronger line up than the last couple of years with plenty to like. I particularly enjoy that it’s almost impossible to predict a winner at this point, especially at this stage where staging and performance will be all-important to a lot of this field.

Before I get into it, the usual disclosure that this is based on the “Twingo Test”, ie how well do they stand up on their own when listening in my car (although a fair few got added to my running playlist as well), with little weight put on visuals, pedigree etc. The ranking can, and does change, once rehearsals and performances start.

So who’s bottom of the barrel this year? Congrats (not) to Finland. I’ve said many times that I’m not averse to craziness if done well. No Rules sounds like it had no effort or thought put into it when compared to the stronger offerings and while I’m hoping it will ultimately get cancelled out, it’s also in the much easier semi.

I was so excited about retro powerhouse Luxembourg’s return, only for it to turn into Israel-by-stealth. Even taking it on the song alone, there’s nothing original here. Sweden can also thank their lucky stars they have an automatic final slot, as there is no way that Unforgettable would be qualifying on its own merits, with its dated early 00’s Europop and completely unintelligible English – on first listen, I thought they’d gone back to Swedish for a moment and got excited.

Next is the Meh Club where we find Cyprus (get some new ideas already, although viewers have shorter memories than me), Estonia, Israel (all that fuss, and it’s a generic ballad which requires no more of my time), Lithuania (it’s catchy, but so is Covid), San Marino (trying and failing to be edgy), Malta, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Serbia and Slovenia. I try and keep the preview blog below 1500 words, and this group aren’t worth the word count.

In the midfield is Austria which indeed has a good rave hook, but the title is too meta for me to get past. Surely the first rule of Rave club is that you don’t talk about Rave club? Also Iceland which I fear is destined for last in its semi but doesn’t really deserve that. Both Greece and Armenia could work with revamps but are otherwise too chaotic. I hate to use the phrase “compassion fatigue” with Ukraine (but I will) and they will surely qualify at least, but a right side finish seems likely.

There’s several more than I’m on the fence about that clearly need visuals to work, so I’m open minded to them leaping up (or possibly down) the rankings come showtime. Norway has grown on me but I’m still not fully sold and I strongly suspect it will end up as this year’s Fulenn/EAEA. Portugal have stuck to the mellow sound that they do so well, but writing this now, I’m struggling to bring it to mind. France is bit of sanity and a strong ballad could be this year’s jurywank but there’s been plenty better ballads than this. You can always count on Denmark to bring quality pop, but Sand will struggle to survive SF2. Italy is certainly a departure from the endless dull men and doesn’t really pass the Twingo test, but will be better live. And well done Ireland from going as far away from Wild Youth as it’s possible to get, but Doomsday Blue needed one less movement.

Just missing out on the Top Ten is Albania, who never fail to punch above their weight for such a small country. How do they keep finding these world class singers? Titan is actually a decent song to go with it too, which is where they’ve fallen down before. Spain would be a fantastic theme tune if The Clothes Show ever got revived and props up a strong year for the Big 5.

So the (extremely provisional) top ten looks like this:

1 point: Poland: Luna “The Tower”

The Tower takes a simple concept and sees it through for the entire three minutes, which means it may not stand out, although it should sail through to the final from SF1 which has got to be the weakest for several years. Really not sure how these vocals are going to work live, but this studio version sounds great.

2 points: Croatia: Baby Lasagna “Rim Tim Tagi Dim”

We wouldn’t be trying to copy Cha Cha Cha now, would we? This is a televote grab if ever I saw one and I don’t want this to win at all, but that beat is very very infectious I have to admit. It’s the perfect BPM for my running cadence, so I’ve played this more than I’d like to admit.

3 points: Latvia: Dons “Hollow”

Yes it’s a Sadboi anthem, but a good one and anything that is a minority in the line-up will catch my attention. Quality compositions are in fairly short supply too. If this does make the final, I wouldn’t rule out this getting an impressive haul of jury points.

4 points: United Kingdom: Olly Alexander “Dizzy”

I just hope it doesn’t get ignored (the Big 5 getting a proper airing in each Semi this year will hopefully help their case) as this is actually good, and Olly is already demonstrating he can sell this – when he’s in the right headspace. I haven’t really addressed the elephant in the room this year because I’m frankly sick of it, but Olly would do well at this point to just keep his head down, ignore the noise and give us the great performance we know he is capable of.  It’s a big step forward for us after last year, so let’s not ruin that momentum.

5 points: Australia: Electric Fields “Milkali (One Blood)”

You might need to do a bit of a Roger Bens on this, ie press play, turn the volume up and then walk away from your screen. I don’t know who signed off on this video but it will ruin the song for you if you watch it – so just enjoy the song like I do, which is the perfect example of showcasing your culture in an accessible song that won’t alienate people.

6 points: Netherlands: Joost Klein “Europapa”

A lot of what I said about Croatia could be copied and pasted here, but this is the more complete package of the two and I like the dark undertone in the lyrics. I think neither will win however – I predict them (with a few others) splitting the televote and the juries will end up having the ultimate say.

7 points: Czechia: Aiko “Pedestal”

Mini LLPP’s favourite will usually find a way into my top 10, mainly because it has plenty of opportunity to grow on me. Putting that aside, Pedestal is a solid RMW anthem and does the best job of what Ireland and San Marino were attempting. It has a clear concept all the way through and importantly, puts the song ahead of the image.

8 points: Switzerland: Nemo “The Code”

As I said earlier, a winner is extremely hard to call this year but putting my head on the block, I’d lean towards this. Howver it could just as easily be the flop of the year. It’s extremely ambitious vocally and it’s one of those entries where everything has to be perfect for it to work – but as a televote/jury compromise, this ticks both boxes.

10 points: Germany: Isaak “Always On The Run”

Germany are Top 10 regulars in this blog, but I’ve given up on predicting anything for them. Always On The Run could be straight out of the Rag’n’Bone Man catalogue and indeed would probably be an international hit if he’d released it. I adore Isaak’s voice, and I’ve posted the National Final performance here to show he can really deliver this – the effortlessness of his singing is really distinctive. Does not deserve to come last again, but sadly I suspect it will.

12 points: Belgium: Mustii “Before The Party’s Over”

Frankly, this is head and shoulders above the rest of the field and I haven’t loved a Eurovision song as much as this since Space Man. Qualification is not even a given from SF2, but If we’re taking song and singer package at face value, then this is the definite overall winner. That last minute could be very powerful and be what gets it over the finish line, but like with Switzerland, there’s a lot of “if’s” here. Over to you now Belgium – a win is a distinct possibility if it comes together.